Final Update: By the Numbers Projections 16-17 | John Hatfield

TomM
By TomM February 7, 2017 11:20

Final Update: By the Numbers Projections 16-17 | John Hatfield

Final Update By the Numbers Projections

John Hatfield | 2-7-2017

For those of you wondering where your favorite team competes this postseason, here is a breakdown of not only which teams will be where, but which teams are favored to move on in each Regional and Team Sectional.

Check out the details HERE

Photo Credit: Random Lake Wrestling

UPDATE No. 3: WI Scouting Report; By the Numbers Projections 16-17 | John Hatfield

January updates to the 2017 By the Numbers Projections are ready.  This is the second round of updates – there will be one more released the week of Regionals.  According to the 5000 simulations run of each Division, the odds at the top have tightened in all 3 Divisions.  Ellsworth is still the heaviest favorite to win a Team State title, but Luxemburg-Casco’s win over Coleman caused them to gain some ground on the Panthers.  In Division 1, Stoughton and Kaukauna are nearly tied as co-favorites, and the simulations have one of those two teams taking home the title nearly 71% of the time!  Division 3 still shows Stratford as a favorite, though Fennimore and Coleman have both gained a little on the leaders.

Team Contenders Odds Update

In the state series projections, Waterford has overtaken Mukwonago as the favorite to make it to Team State out of Sectional F.  In Division 3, the system now sees Spring Valley/Elmwood as the front runner to win Regional A3, but that regional contains 4 ranked teams!  In fact, when combined with the Fennimore/Mineral Point/Lancaster/Iowa-Grant regional, the rankings right now would see 7 out of 17 ranked teams eliminated from the team state series on Regional Saturday.

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UPDATE No. 2 : Wisconsin Scouting Report; By the Numbers Projections 16-17 | John Hatfield

2016-2017 Wisconsin Scouting Report Part Two: By the Numbers!

by John Hatfield – Random Lake | December 2016

Update to preseason By the Numbers projections.

Click on any team’s Division taking you to the projected scouting report for that team and all of the other teams in that Regional.

2017 Team Contenders Odds  | 2017 State Team Series Projections December Update

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Part One: 2016-2017 Wisconsin Scouting Report | By the Numbers!

by John Hatfield – Random Lake | August 2016

Click on any team’s Division taking you to the projected scouting report for that team and all of the other teams in that Regional.

The first link is to the set of scouting reports calculated utilizing 2015-2016 results.
The division links will display end of the year projections for Regionals and the Team State series.

Regional projections are the result of a simulation model combining the strength of returning starters and an estimate for how ‘full’ a team will be to create Regional point totals. Each Regional is then simulated 500 times, allowing a team’s points per starter returning and number of starters to vary randomly. The percentage for each team comes from those simulations.
For the Team State series, a second simulation model is used to generate an expected NOPIN score for each team. For anyone interested, NOPIN can be explained in much more detail elsewhere in a future post . The backbone of the model is again the strength of returning starters combined with the team’s historical quality of Regional starters over the past five years. Dual results are then predicted by comparing the two teams’ NOPIN scores.

Scouting Reports for all Teams

Projections for all Divisions (1-2-3)

D1 Regionals  /  D1 Team State Series

D2 Regionals  /  D2 Team State Series

D3 Regionals  /  D3 Team State Series

TomM
By TomM February 7, 2017 11:20

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