2017-2018 | Final Round: Regional and Team Sect. NOPIN Projections

By TomM February 8, 2018 11:16

2017-2018 |  Final Round: Regional and Team Sect. NOPIN Projections

Final round: Regional and Team Sect. NOPIN Projections 2017-2018 | John Hatfield

February Updates: 2018 State Projections  | 2018 Odds for Contending Teams

WIAA Regional and Sectional Team Assignments

February update to the By the Numbers postseason projections are here. Every Regional is broken down by the odds of each team winning that Regional, and for the top 45 contenders in each Division. The odds of getting to and winning Team State are also listed. Two different models were used to create a total of 10,000 simulated post-seasons in each division. One model favors NOPIN to assign the probabilities for head-to-head dual matchups, and the other model blends NOPIN and the WIWrestling.com team rankings – which have a fantastic track record of correctly picking the winners of duals at Team Sectionals and Team State.

Division 1 Summary:
Kaukauna and Holmen remain co-favorites to win a Division 1 State Title. Several of the participants at Team State seem like relatively safe bets, but the New Berlin Sectional offers a bit more drama than most on the team side. Mukwonago and Waterford have flip-flopped in the rankings in recent weeks, and the winner of that Regional will take on powerhouse program Pewaukee. Don’t be surprised if any of those teams make it to the Field House.
With Team State being seeded this year, it will be very interesting to see who gets the coveted 4th seed. The contenders would seem to be Burlington, Stoughton, Slinger and Hudson. In any case – I’m sure the top 3 seeds don’t want to draw one of those programs first round!

Regionals to Watch:
Green Bay United
West Allis Central

Division 2 Summary:
Luxemburg-Casco remains an even-money favorite to win the Division 2 Crown – which is a considerable statement taking into account the Regional and Team Sectional road they must travel. While it seems Ellsworth and L-C are safe bets to make the Final Four, who will they be competing against? The team coming out of the Richland Center Sectional could be any of a number of candidates. The historically safe bet would be Lodi, but they will be severely tested by newcomers Prairie du Chien and Gale-Ettrick-Trempeleau/Melrose-Mindoro. Any regional winner could feasibly advance to Team State from that Sectional. In the Cedar Grove Sectional, the biggest “lock” to win a Regional is Jefferson with a 78% chance. Every other Regional has multiple contenders who are all pretty close in NOPIN scores as well. It will be fun to see what shakes out of that Sectional.

Regionals to Watch:

Division 3 Summary:
Stratford is the heaviest favorite to win a State Title in any division. A big shake-up in the North: Clear Lake has leapfrogged Boyceville as the favorite to win the Spring Valley Regional. That’s good news for Saint Croix Falls – who NOPIN considers a favorite to beat Clear Lake, but a theoretical underdog to Boyceville. Any of those 3 teams could make it out of that Sectional.
If it’s a true toss-up of a Regional you are looking for, look no further than the Brookwood Regional. Four teams each have a 23% chance or greater of winning the Regional Championship!

Regionals to Watch:
Spring Valley

2017-2018 | January updates By the Numbers Projections

Updates are done incorporating changes in NOPIN scores from ‘in season’ dual results and rankings done by wiwrestling.com  The biggest changes are Holmen and Slinger nosing their way into the discussion for Division 1 Team State Champion, and Stratford becoming nearly twice as strong of a favorite in Division 3 after knocking off Stoughton.

Team Contenders Odds | State Series Projections

Photo Credit: Paul Stumpf P.S. Portraits


“By The Numbers” Wisconsin Projections 2017-2018 Season

October 30, 2017

Annual “By The Numbers” Wisconsin High School Wrestling Projections 2017-2018 Season

With the season a short time away, it’s high time to get some scouting done.

2017-2018 projections may be found at the links below,
with everything needed to analyze the upcoming Wisconsin high school wrestling season.

Overview  |  2018 Projections  |  Scouting Reports for All Wisconsin Teams

2018 NOPIN Dual Meet Projections  | 2018 Odds for Top Contenders

Join the Online Discussin HERE!

Created and compiled by John Hatfield, Random Lake, Wisconsin

Photos: Hayley V, Random Lake

Posted Monday, October 30, 2017

By TomM February 8, 2018 11:16