2016-2017 Wisconsin NOPIN Interactive Dual Meet Projections
The NOPIN Interactive Dual Meet Projection provides a look at projected dual meet outcomes based on seven years of Wisconsin wrestling results.
The link below will take you to an interactive spreadsheet where you can find a ‘projected outcome’ for a dual between any two Wisconsin high school teams. Simply select the two teams from the drop-down menus and the system will produce a projected scoreline as well as a probability for each team winning the selected dual.
Koy Kosek first published his EDWIN method of predicting Team State duals in the 2008-2009 Wisconsin Wrestling Digest. The NOPIN system is built largely as a take-off on Koys ideas, though it has been tweaked and calibrated using the past 7 years of Wisconsin high school wrestling data. Hopefully it has been gaining in accuracy based on the greater longitudinal data base.
To this end, in expanding the database, it would be helpful if you post the ‘projection’ and ‘actual result’ of any given dual. Please do so on this thread of the WIWrestling forum. Hopefully the Wisconsin wrestling community will enter the majority of “upsets” to assist the system in becoming even more accurate. Entering upsets will alter the future projections for each team, so it is important we know about them when they occur.
Get involved in broadening the database by posting ‘actual results’ and ‘projected outcome’.
NOPIN projected: Johnson City over Glen Falls 36-30 (65%)
Actual results: Johnson City over Glen Falls 39-28.
Credit for technical advice in creating the interactive spreadsheet goes to Jeremy Lis of Core Logic in Milwaukee.
Photo Credit: Paul Stumpf – PS Portraits