WI Scouting Report; By the Numbers Projections 2016-2017 | John Hatfield
Wisconsin Scouting Report; By the Numbers Projections 16-17 | John Hatfield
2016-2017 Wisconsin Scouting Report Part One: By the Numbers!
by John Hatfield – Random Lake | August 2016
Click on any team’s Division taking you to the projected scouting report for that team and all of the other teams in that Regional.
The first link is to the set of scouting reports calculated utilizing 2015-2016 results.
The division links will display end of the year projections for Regionals and the Team State series.
Regional projections are the result of a simulation model combining the strength of returning starters and an estimate for how ‘full’ a team will be to create Regional point totals. Each Regional is then simulated 500 times, allowing a team’s points per starter returning and number of starters to vary randomly. The percentage for each team comes from those simulations.
For the Team State series, a second simulation model is used to generate an expected NOPIN score for each team. For anyone interested, NOPIN can be explained in much more detail elsewhere in a future post . The backbone of the model is again the strength of returning starters combined with the team’s historical quality of Regional starters over the past five years. Dual results are then predicted by comparing the two teams’ NOPIN scores.
Projections for all Divisions (1-2-3)
Photo: Paul Stumpf PS Portraits