“By the Numbers” Projections Final Edition | John Hatfield

TomM
February 9, 2016 20:46

“By the Numbers” Projections Final Edition | John Hatfield

Wisconsin Scouting Report: “By the Numbers” Projections Final Edition 

John Hatfield |  Random Lake | Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Here are the final pre-regional projections for every team in the state, along with projections for how the team state bracket will play out, and the overall odds of winning regionals, making state, and winning Team State for the top contenders in each division.

Regionals and Team State Series  |  Odds for the Top Contenders

After last round’s publication in mid-January, I voiced some displeasure with my system. Since then I have created “caps” for dual meet predictions. Basically a dual falls into one of these categories:

If neither team is ranked, the projected winner is capped at a 75% chance of winning.
If both teams are ranked within 4 spots of each other, the projected winner is also capped at a 75% chance of winning.
If both teams are ranked, but one is more than 4 spots above the other, the projected winner is capped at a 90 % chance of winning.
If one team is ranked and the other is unranked, I use no cap.

While this lowered the overall odds for some of the favorites who I think many would consider to be a “lock” (looking at you Ellsworth and Stratford), I think this was a necessary change. Left unchecked, my reliance on the wiwrestling.com rankings would have predicted things like Ellsworth with better than a 90% chance of beating Luxemburg Casco or Stratford beating Coleman over 90% of the time. Those specific duals are both now capped at 75% – which feels more in line with reality.

Anyway… Enjoy, bash, disregard… just make sure to stay tuned after the season for the after action summary about how solid (or not) these projections turned out to be.

Photo Credit Chelsea Dahmen

TomM
February 9, 2016 20:46
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